Why It Makes Sense for the Marlins to Trade Jesús Luzardo
Even though it hurts the Marlins chances of returning to the playoffs, trading Jesús Luzardo this offseason might be the Marlins best path to sustained success in the future.
While the Marlins saw a ton of success throughout the 2023 season, Jesús Luzardo’s successful 2023 campaign was one of the most prevalent and exciting seasons out of any Marlin this past summer. Luzardo was traded by the A’s to the Marlins in exchange for Starling Marte during the 2021 trade deadline. Luzardo struggled badly with Oakland before being traded, recording a 6.87 ERA in 13 outings. Despite continuing his struggles with the Marlins in August and September of 2021, Luzardo showed flashes of what he could be in the future, like on August 29 when he allowed just one hit and struck out 8 Reds batters across six innings. Even though Luzardo only made 18 starts in 2022 due to a lengthy IL stint, he put up an impressive 3.32 ERA, showing massive improvements in his strikeout and walk percentage. Luzardo pretty much replicated his 2022 in 2023, having similar advanced stats in both years, with the only drastic change being his chase rate increasing by 3 percent. Luzardo made 32 starts for the Marlins this season and became the first Marlins lefty with 200+ strikeouts in a season since Al Leiter in 1996.
With all that being said, I think I’ve clarified that the Marlins need Jesus Luzardo in the rotation to compete in 2024. However, I think it might be best for the Marlins moving forward to trade Luzardo this offseason if they care about restocking the farm system to have sustained success in the future; I think they should highly consider trading Luzardo if they can get a good enough offer. Since the Marlins are a small market team, they rely on having a good farm system if they want sustained success. The biggest problem in the Marlins organization right now is that they haven’t been drafting well in the past few years. Here’s a look at how it’s going for the previous first-round draft picks by the Marlins:
2023: Noble Meyer - Looks promising, only 18 years old
2022: Jacob Berry - Struggling in the minor leagues
2021: Kahlil Watson - Traded to the Guardians for Josh Bell
2020: Max Meyer - Debuted in 2022 before TJ surgery, returning this year
2019: JJ Bleday - Traded to the A’s for AJ Puk
2018: Connor Scott - Traded to the Pirates for Jacob Stallings
After Eury Perez graduated from the farm system this summer, the Marlins farm system is ranked in the bottom five according to most websites. Another bad sign with the Marlins drafting and developing is the lack of homegrown talent on the 26-man roster. If you look at Marlins lineups from last season, the only position player originally signed by the Marlins was Nick Fortes. The Marlins were still able to field a competitive team that won 84 games by trading former top prospects, but it’ll be harder for the Marlins to make trades for quality big leaguers if they have fewer pieces in the farm system. As we know about the Marlins new POBO Peter Bendix, he worked with an elite farm system in Tampa Bay, and a very low budget. Bendix knows that the Marlins probably won’t spend on a contract extension for Jesus Luzardo, so this would be the best time for them to trade Luzardo, as he has two years of team control remaining.
With teams like the Red Sox, Dodgers, and other teams likely interested in Luzardo, I think the Marlins can get a ton of top prospects from those teams. Here’s an example of a trade package that the Marlins could get for Luzardo:
In conclusion, the Marlins have a tough decision to make with Jesús Luzardo. I would personally be fine with trading Luzardo when his value is this high, but I would also be happy if they kept Luzardo to stay competitive.