Where Will Japanese RHP Roki Sasaki Sign?
ESPN's Jeff Passan reports that the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays are the finalists for Roki Sasaki. Which team will he choose?
While Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Blake Snell, among others, already have made their free agency decision, Roki Sasaki is the biggest free agent still on the market. Even though Sasaki probably has the most talent out of anyone left on the market, he isn’t eligible to sign an MLB deal; here’s why:
Major League Baseball’s rules state that to sign a regular MLB contract as an international free agent, you must be at least 25 years old and have played six or more seasons in a foreign league. Sasaki is 23 and has only played four seasons of professional ball; therefore, he can only sign a minor league deal with a signing bonus.
Sasaki’s current situation is similar to Shohei Ohtani’s in 2017. Like Roki, Shohei got posted when he was 23 and signed a minor league contract with the Angels that included a 2.315 million dollar signing bonus.
On the other hand, Sasaki could’ve taken the same route as Dodgers RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a 12-year contract worth $325 million at age 25 last winter.
Key Factors
Pitching Development: While Sasaki has the chance to instantly become one of the top pitchers in MLB, he is still just 23 and is nowhere near a finished product. The Dodgers have the best reputation for developing pitching out of the three finalists. The most recent example of the Dodgers developing a homegrown starter is Walker Buehler. Although injuries have derailed Buehler’s last few seasons, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2018-2021, posting a 2.82 ERA in 564 innings over those four years. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays and Padres are more toward the middle of the pack in pitching development, with both teams relying on veterans such as José Berríos and Yu Darvish to anchor their rotation.
Good Reputation With Asian Players: With the KBO and NPB producing more and more MLB talent each year, it seems that the trend has been for Asian players to team up with other Asian players. The Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last offseason and Hyeseong Kim this offseason. Furthermore, the Cubs signed both Seiya Suzuki in 2022 and Shota Imanaga in 2024.
Winning: A common theme in any sport, especially baseball, is that the top free agents want to sign with a winning organization. As for the Dodgers, they’ve been the definition of winning over the past decade. Since 2013, L.A. has won their division 11 times, appeared in the World Series 4 times, and won 100 or more games 5 times. The Padres have been nowhere near the Dodgers winning level, but they’ve had their fair share of success over the past few years. They’ve appeared in the postseason in 3 of the past 5 seasons and are coming off their winningest season since 1998. Although the Padres fell short in the NLDS last year, they have the talent to go all the way, even more so if they sign Roki Sasaki. Lastly, the Blue Jays have struggled to find legitimate success with their current core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. On the surface level, three playoff appearances this decade sounds good; however, they’re 0-6 in playoff games and coming off a 74-win season, their worst win total since 2019.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have been the favorites to land Sasaki well before the finalists were announced.
Simply put, Sasaki going to the Dodgers makes too much sense. They have the two best Japanese players in MLB, they have the best culture in baseball, they’ve signed more big free agents than any other franchise over the past few years, and they’re coming off a World Series championship with their entire core returning for 2025 (Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Will Smith, etc.)
The Dodgers celebrate winning the World Series, via Reuters.
Additionally, the Dodgers have the most international pool money at approximately 3.6 million. They also brought back SS Darrell Morel (DR, $1.1M) and OF Orlando Patiño (VEN, $400K) to the market, making it even clearer that they’re all in on Sasaki.
San Diego Padres
While it is no surprise that San Diego is a finalist for Roki Sasaki, I’d be stunned if they landed him.
The pros of Sasaki going to the Padres are pretty straightforward. They’re coming off a 93-win season, they have a talented pitching staff led by Michael King and Dylan Cease, and they have one of the best young offensive duos in Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a towering home run in the fourth inning, via Baseball Savant.
If Sasaki, for some reason, wanted to play on the West Coast but not in Los Angeles, the Padres make perfect sense. However, signing with the Padres could come with some significant drawbacks. Since Peter Seidler passed away and his brother took over, the Padres have virtually stopped spending. Furthermore, they’re reportedly open to trading Luis Arraez and Dylan Cease.
On top of not spending enough in free agency to keep up with the Dodgers, Matt and Bob Seidler are being sued by Seidler’s widow, Sheel, who broadcasted her desire to gain control of the franchise. This raises the question of a potential sale of the Padres in the near future and could turn free agents away from signing with the team until the ownership situation gets handled.
Toronto Blue Jays
Year after year, the Blue Jays are finalists for top free agents, but they barely ever land them. The Jays were finalists for Shohei Ohtani, Corbin Burnes, and Juan Soto, but they didn’t land any of them.
Insiders have speculated that taxes are one of the main reasons players don’t want to play in Toronto. Former Blue Jays’ Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin recently went to tax court due to how they were taxed in Canada.
It would make zero sense to me if Sasaki chose the Blue Jays over the Dodgers and Padres. Not only are they far from the West Coast, which is where most Asian players prefer to play due to its closer proximity to Asia, but they also aren’t known for pitching development.
The one advantage that the Jays have over most teams is money. Owner Edward S. Rogers III has a net worth of 11.5 billion dollars, making him the second wealthiest owner in MLB, behind Steve Cohen. That said, money isn’t much of a factor for Sasaki right now, so it would be very odd if he chose Toronto.
Via Getty Images
Great article so well written