Top 6 by Position: Starting Pitcher

Taking a look at the 6 best starting pitchers in MLB right now.

To avoid confusion, here is the meaning of the stat abbreviations that I used in this article:

xERA = expected ERA

BABIP = batting average on balls in play

SO9 = strikeouts per 9 innings

BB9 = walks allowed per 9 innings

HR9 = home runs allowed per 9 innings

H9 = hits allowed per nine innings

LOB% = left on-base percentage

ERA = earned run average

fWAR = FanGraphs WAR

1. Gerrit Cole

Ever since being traded to the Astros in 2018, Gerrit Cole has been the most dominant and consistent pitcher over the last six seasons. In 1076.2 innings from 2018-2023, Cole has a 2.93 ERA, 146 ERA+, 11.9 SO9, 1.2 HR9, and a SO/BB (strikeout to walk ratio) of 5.29.

Cole finally won his first Cy Young award this season after finishing in the top 5 in voting in four of the past five seasons. Now that Cole has a Cy Young in his trophy case, the 6x All-Star has solidified himself as the best pitcher in baseball and likely has a spot in Cooperstown if he can perform around this level for 2-3 more seasons.

2. Corbin Burnes

Corbin Burnes went from being an afterthought from 2018-2019 to the 2nd best pitcher in the game from 2020-2023. The main reason why Burnes drastically turned into a star was his cutter. Burnes didn’t start throwing a cutter until 2020, and it became his main pitch by 2021. Burnes threw his cutter 1,706 times in 2023, only allowed a .209 batting average, and surrendered a home run 13 times.

Since he emerged onto the scene in 2020, Burnes has a 2.86 ERA and 146 ERA+ across 622.1 innings. He also has 11.1 SO9 and 2.5 BB9. While nearly all of Burnes’ numbers were down in 2023, he still led the NL in WHIP (1.069) and BABIP (.244) and had the 14th-best ERA in the NL (3.39). With how consistent Burnes has been over the past four seasons, I think he is well-deserving of the #3 spot on this list.

3. Spencer Strider

Spencer Strider is already one of the best starters in baseball, and he’s only pitched one full season. Strider’s ERA this season was only 3.86, but you’ll realize that Strider was the most unlucky pitcher if you look at more of his stats. Strider’s xERA was the 2nd lowest in baseball at 3.09, and he led the NL with a 2.85 FIP. Strider undoubtedly has the best swing-and-miss stuff in baseball right now for a starter, as he placed in the 95th percentile in chase rate, 98th percentile in whiff rate, and 99th percentile in strikeout rate.

As for his non-advanced strikeout numbers, he easily led the league with 281 strikeouts and 13.5 SO9. With these impressive strikeout numbers at only 25 years of age, the sky is the limit for Spencer Strider.

Spencer Strider had the fourth highest single-season strikeouts per 9 innings pitched in MLB history, ahead of Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and many more future Hall of Famers.

4. Blake Snell

Blake Snell is coming off his second Cy Young season (becoming just the 7th player to win the award in both leagues), but he did it in an obscure way. Snell had the worst BB/9 (4.95) amongst qualified pitchers this season but the best LOB% in the MLB by 6 percent, the third lowest HR/9 (0.79), and the 2nd best K/9 (11.70). Some more stats that Snell led the majors in this season include ERA (2.25), ERA+ (182), and H9 (5.8).

The only reason I left Snell out of the top 3 is a lack of consistency in the past few seasons. From 2019-2022 (in between his Cy Young seasons), Snell had a 3.85 ERA and just a 104 ERA+. Based on those statistics and how he pitches, I can’t trust Snell to replicate his 2023 numbers yearly.

5. Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray has become easily the most underrated pitcher in baseball, and it’s pretty easy to understand why he doesn’t get as much national recognition as other elite pitchers do, he isn’t flashy. Gray’s average fastball velocity is just 93 MPH and his strikeout rate is right around league average.

The only two specific reasons why Gray is elite are his ability to barely allow home runs and his sweeper. Gray threw his sweeper 576 times last season and allowed just a .097 batting average and no home runs on that pitch. While Gray surrendered no home runs using his sweeper last season, he also allowed just eight home runs on all of his pitches last season, giving him easily the lowest HR/9 in baseball at 0.39.

6. Zack Wheeler

Coming in at the final spot on this list, I have Phillies veteran Zack Wheeler. While Wheeler had a down year in 2023 compared to his previous 3 seasons, he still led MLB in fWAR and had the fourth-best xERA, suggesting that he may have simply gotten really unlucky.

In the past four seasons, Wheeler has a combined 137 ERA+, 3.06 ERA, and a 2.90 FIP in 629.1 innings across 101 starts. Wheeler has only made the All-Star game once in his 9-year career, but that doesn’t take away from how good he’s been since signing with the Phillies.

Honorable mentions: Kevin Gausman, Zac Gallen, Justin Steele, Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Logan Webb, Sandy Alcantara, Zach Eflin, Kyle Bradish, Freddy Peralta, and Kodai Senga.