Marlins 2024 Opening Day Roster Projection
Taking a look at what the Marlins 2024 roster could look like if this offseason goes well.
Starting rotation:
The Marlins have quite a few options for their last rotation spot, especially with an open spot after Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery. The Marlins rotation was good and shaky at times throughout 2023, ranking 16th in team ERA and fifth in team strikeouts. We saw breakout seasons from lefties Braxton Garrett and Jesus Luzardo, as well as Eury Perez shoving for the best rookie season by a Marlins pitcher since Jose Fernandez a decade ago. Edward Cabrera flashed potential during his 20 starts this season but still had significant command issues, walking over 15 percent of hitters he faced. Johnny Cueto has a team option this offseason, but it’s doubtful that the Marlins will keep Cueto around after a rough 2023. Johnny Cueto also missed the playoff roster, hinting that the Marlins are done with him. The Marlins have three options that are currently with the organization for the fifth rotation spot. Max Meyer, Ryan Weathers, and Trevor Rogers. Meyer and Rogers are both coming off significant injuries, while Weathers was recently acquired from the Padres as a “project.” If Seth Lugo (player option) opts out of his deal with the Padres, I think the Marlins could target him. Lugo recorded a 3.57 ERA in 146.1 innings in his age-33 season with the Padres and could provide a ton of leverage to this Marlins pitching staff. Lugo was strictly a starter in 2023 with San Diego, but he has been used as a reliever a lot during his seven seasons with the Mets (2016-2022).
Here’s what I think the Marlins rotation will look like in a best-case scenario:
1: Luzardo, 2: Garrett, 3: Perez, 4: Lugo, 5: Cabrera
Bullpen:
I don’t expect the Marlins to make many changes to their bullpen in 2023. Andrew Nardi and Tanner Scott shined at the back end of the bullpen this year, and Anthony Bender is set to return from TJ surgery in 2024. Bender has a 2.90 ERA in 82 career games and nine saves. On the flip side, I highly doubt that trade deadline acquisition David Robertson returns after his struggles with the Marlins.
Here’s what I think the Marlins bullpen could look like in a best-case scenario:
Closer: Scott, Setup: Nardi, 7th inning: Bender, Middle Relievers: Brazoban, Puk, Chargois, Soriano, Okert
Catcher:
The Marlins didn’t have much production from Nick Fortes and Jacob Stallings at catcher in 2023. Stallings and Fortes both had an OBP below .280 and an OPS+ below 55. I think that Jacob Stallings shouldn’t return to the Marlins in 2024. Not only did he take a step back defensively, but he also hit below the Mendoza line for the first time in his career. I expect the Marlins to keep Fortes around for at least one more year as a backup. Although he struggled heavily at the plate, his defense was solid, accumulating a +5 fielding run value (80th percentile). Two catchers that I think the Marlins should target in free agency are Victor Caratini and Mitch Garver. 33-year-old Mitch Garver was one of the better hitting catchers in MLB this season, batting .270 with a 134 OPS+ and a 12.8 BB% with Texas. Meanwhile, Caratini doesn’t excite me as much as Garver, but would still be an upgrade over Stallings. Caratini slugged for a .711 OPS as the backup catcher for the Brewers. Caratini is also one of the best framers in baseball.
First base:
With a player option for Josh Bell, it is unclear what the Marlins first base situation will look like in 2024. If Bell opts in, he’ll be the full-time starter, with Troy Johnston as the backup. Johnston played amazing this year in the minors, batting .307 in 134 games with the AA Blue Wahoos and AAA Jumbo Shrimp. The Marlins must add Troy Johnston to their 40-man roster in order to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, but I am certain that the Marlins will not chance losing Johnston, considering the numbers he’s put up for the past two years.
Second Base:
The expectations for Luis Arraez will be high heading into his second season with the Marlins. Arraez was selected to the All-Star Game for the second time in his career, as well as winning the batting title for the second consecutive season. Arraez became the first player in MLB history to win a batting title in consecutive seasons in two different leagues. Arraez has already joined the likes of Dee Gordon and Luis Castillo as the best Marlins contact hitters ever, but he’ll look to make even more history in 2024.
Shortstop
The Marlins went with Joey Wendle at shortstop for most of the first half, but he was not producing and saw reduced playing time throughout August before ultimately being benched in September. I expect the Marlins to move on from Joey Wendle going forward, but who do you replace him with? Jon Berti has been a reliable utility man for the Marlins since 2019, and I’d expect him to return to the Marlins in 2024, as he has a team option. Xavier Edwards will also get a better opportunity to show what he can do in the majors. Edwards batted .295 in 78 at-bats during his time up in the big leagues this year. There have been concerns about Edwards’ shortstop defense; however, he has all offseason to improve. Garrett Hampson is also under club control through 2024, so he’ll also be a candidate to make the roster. Hampson played 53 games in the outfield and 43 games as an infielder in 2023, hitting for a solid 98 OPS+ and accumulating a 1.3 WAR.
Third Base
Jake Burger played his best baseball post-deadline with the Marlins in 2023 and became a fan favorite in the Marlins community. Burger batted .323 in August and .283 in September, with nine home runs in those two months. The weird thing about Burger is that his batting average pre-deadline with the White Sox was .214, and then he hit .303 with the Marlins in the final two months of the season. Burger hit home runs less frequently but boosted his batting average by nearly .90 points. Burger isn’t arbitration eligible until 2026, and Marlins fans will look forward to 30+ homer seasons from Jake Burger.
Outfield
Barring an unexpected trade, I expect Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez to return to the Marlins in 2024. Sanchez and De La Cruz both went on big hot streaks at times in 2023 but ultimately finished with numbers slightly above league average. Sanchez plays league-average defense with an elite arm in right field, while Bryan De La Cruz’s defense was not too impressive, as he recorded a -4 fielding run value (fourth percentile).
After a lot of question marks in Spring Training, Jazz Chisholm Jr. turned into an elite centerfielder. Jazz only played 60% of the 2023 season due to an oblique injury and Turf Toe; however, he still managed to hit 19 home runs and swipe 22 bags, falling one homer shy of a 20/20 season. Marlins fans know that Jazz Chisholm Jr. has the potential to be one of the players in baseball if he plays a full season and makes improvements against left-handed pitching.
Jorge Soler had his best season since 2019, hitting 36 home runs in 504 at-bats. Soler mostly played designated hitter but still played 32 games in right field. Jorge Soler will likely decline his player option and explore free agency, so the Marlins will have to give Soler the big bucks if they want him back in 2024. If Soler doesn’t return to Miami, there are upcoming free-agent outfielders, such as Teoscar Hernandez and Joc Pederson, that the Marlins should definitely look into.