1,500 Hits for Giancarlo Stanton: Will He End Up in Cooperstown?

Evaluating Giancarlo Stanton's Hall of Fame case.

After Giancarlo Stanton reached the 1,500-hit milestone today, I couldn’t help but wonder what it’ll take for Giancarlo Stanton to get inducted into the Hall of Fame. In this article, I’ll compare Stanton’s numbers to those of current Hall of Fame outfielders to see if he has what it takes to get inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

1. Stanton compared to other outfielders from his era

To start, let’s take a look at how Stanton matches up against other outfielders from the 2010s-2020s.

Nine outfielders have made at least 6,500 plate appearances since 2010. Here’s where Stanton ranks among the eight other players in contention:

WRC+:

1. Mike Trout - 169

2. Bryce Harper - 142

3. Giancarlo Stanton - 136

4. Nelson Cruz - 133

5. J.D. Martinez - 132

6. Andrew McCutchen - 129

7. Charlie Blackmon - 109

8. Jason Heyward - 105

9. Nick Markakis - 104

fWAR:

1. Mike Trout - 85.7 (32 years old)

2. Bryce Harper - 49.6 (31 years old)

3. Andrew McCutchen - 49.1 (37 years old)

4. Giancarlo Stanton - 42.4 (34 years old)

5. Nelson Cruz - 36.5 (43 years old, retired)

6. Jason Heyward - 34.8 (34 years old)

7. J.D. Martinez - 32.0 (36 years old)

8. Charlie Blackmon - 20.3 (37 years old)

9. Nick Markakis - 14.5 (40 years old, retired)

Home Runs:

1. Giancarlo Stanton - 416

2. Nelson Cruz - 409

3. Mike Trout - 378

4. J.D. Martinez - 320

5. Bryce Harper - 320

6. Andrew McCutchen - 295

7. Charlie Blackmon - 217

8. Jason Heyward - 176

9. Nick Markakis - 112

Giancarlo Stanton’s 118.7 MPH home run, via Baseball Savant.

I’ve heard many people say that Stanton needs to hit 500 home runs in his career to make the Hall of Fame. I feel like there’s a pretty good chance he will reach the 500-homer milestone, as he’s currently 34 years and 208 days old and at 416 home runs. If Stanton continues his pace right now, he’ll be at 444 career home runs by the end of the 2024 season, with just 56 home runs left to reach 500 going into his age-35 season.

The only thing stopping Stanton from reaching 500 home runs would be injuries. Stanton lost most of 2019 due to a series of injuries: a left biceps strain, a left shoulder strain, a left calf strain, a strain of his right posterior cruciate ligament, and a strain of his right quadriceps. Stanton also missed nearly 2/3 of the 2020 season due to a hamstring injury, which limited him to playing in just 23 of the 60 games in the shortened season.

More recently, injuries limited Stanton to 110 games in 2022 and 101 in 2023. The good news is that Stanton’s efforts to shed weight this offseason have paid off. Stanton reportedly lost around 30 pounds this past offseason, keeping him off the injured list for the first 30 percent of the season.

If Stanton didn’t have to deal with so many injuries over the past few seasons, he’d probably be well over 500 home runs right now, but it’s looking like he could still get there if he continues to stay healthy over the final few years of his career.

2. Stanton’s accolades and legacy

While traditional stats are very important, I think Hall of Fame voters should also look at how Stanton will be remembered and how he impacted the league.

From the moment Statcacast was introduced (2015), Giancarlo Stanton stood out like a sore thumb on the exit velocity and distance leaderboards. Stanton owns three of the five hardest-hit home runs in the Statcast era and the second-hardest hit ball ever recorded by Statcast, a 504-foot home run at Coors Field in 2016.

Stanton’s 504-foot home run, via Baseball Savant.

Stanton’s 121.7 MPH home run, the longest in Statcast history, via Baseball Savant.

I also think Hall of Fame voters will value Stanton’s historic 2017 MVP season, in which he drilled 59 home runs, tied with Babe Ruth for the 10th most homers in a single season.

Stanton deserves to be recognized for being the most prolific home run hitter of this era. Since 2010, no player has hit more home runs than Giancarlo Stanton,

3. Stanton’s stats compared to players currently in the HOF

One player who is currently in the Hall of Fame that I’d like to bring up is Dave Winfield. When compared to Winfield, Stanton has the lead over him in slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+. Winfield obviously dominates in most of the counting stats, such as WAR, hits, and RBIs, but Stanton is statistically a better hitter than Winfield based on his rate stats.

via Stathead.

Stanton also has the lead in OPS+ over Hall of Famers Paul Molitor, Kirby Puckett, Tony Perez, George Brett, Robin Yount, Joe Morgan, Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, Derek Jeter, and many more.

via Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Let me know what you think about Giancarlo Stanton’s chances to make the Hall of Fame in the comments down below.